Title

Demography, Sustainability and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

 

Author

Carmen Bowen

American River College, Geography 350: Data Acquisition in GIS; Fall 2019

 

Abstract

This study analyzed demographic, environmental and economic data for Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that in the next two to three decades, a rapid growth in population in this region, correlated with accelerated soil degradation and prolonged droughts will possibly lead to regional conflicts and mass migrations to more affluent places. The author chose Niger as a case study, as this country currently has the highest fertility rate in the world, it is one of the poorest and unreliable rain patterns often lead to food shortages. 

 

Introduction

Between 1950 and today, the world’s population grew between 1% and 2% each year, with the number of people rising from 2.5 billion to more than 7.7 billion. The natural increase index varies greatly among the world countries, from negative values, where the population is shrinking, to values of over 30 0/00.  While many countries experience stages four and five of the demographic transition, with stagnant or shrinking population, many African countries are currently in stage three of the demographic transition, with very high birth rates, lowering death rates as well as longer life expectancy.   The result is rapid increase in population and a scarcity of food supplies, a situation in which many Sub-Saharan countries experience malnourishment or famines. (5)

Continued rapid population growth presents challenges for sustainable development. The 47 least developed countries are among the world’s fastest growing – many are projected to double in population between 2019 and 2050 – “putting pressure on already strained resources and challenging policies that aim to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and ensure that no one is left behind” (UN World Population Prospects 2019).

Africa is dominated by family farming, which relies mainly on family labor. Africa has 33 million farms of less than 2 hectares, accounting for 80% of all farms. One in four undernourished people in the world live in Africa: “Africa is the only continent where the absolute number of undernourished people has increased over the last 30 years. Food insecurity remains an essentially rural phenomenon “(NEPAD Transforming Africa). 

Niger is a vast, Sub-Saharan country, located in the heart of the Sahel region, with an estimated population of 22.4 million (2018) The Nigerien economy is not well diversified and depends primarily on agriculture, which represents 40% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

 

Background

Famines are acute food crises, usually after drought or due to armed conflict. Famine is the worst form of food shortage. In addition to old people, babies and small children are especially threatened by starvation. According to the United Nations definition (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification), there is a famine if at least:

In 2000, the 55th UN General Assembly, the Millennium Summit, took place in New York. On September 9, 2000, the 189 UN member states adopted a declaration with the UN Millennium Development Goals that the proportion of malnourished people should be halved by 2015. This goal was narrowly missed. One in eight people in developing regions is starving today (12.9% in 2014-2016). This is due to population growing strongly in sub-Saharan African countries.

The fight against hunger and famine remains one of the biggest challenges facing the world community. By 2030, the United Nations wants to end hunger. This was enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which the UN adopted in 2015 as a follow-up to the Millennium Development Goals.   (5)

Africa is not on track to meet SDG 2. The prevalence of undernourishment continues to rise and now affects 20 percent of the population on the continent, more than in any other region. In Northern Africa, the rise is much less pronounced, and the prevalence is 8.5 percent. In sub-Saharan Africa, the upward trend appears to be accelerating, and now 23 percent of the population is undernourished. The rise in the prevalence of undernourishment has been highest in Western Africa, followed by Central Africa.  (5)

 

There are today 821 million undernourished people in the world, 36.4 million more than in 2015. Of these 257 million are in Africa, of whom 237 million in sub-Saharan Africa and 20 million in Northern Africa. Compared to 2015 there are 34.5 million more undernourished in Africa, 32.6 million more in sub-Saharan Africa, and 1.9 million more in Northern Africa. Nearly half of the increase is due to the rise in undernourished people in Western Africa, while another third is from Eastern Africa. (5)

 

The worsening food security situation was driven by difficult global economic conditions and weak commodity prices for oil and minerals. In many countries, notably in Eastern and Southern Africa, adverse climatic conditions due to El Niño led to a decline in agricultural production and soaring staple food prices. The economic and climatic situation has improved in 2017, but some countries continue to be affected by drought or poor rainfall. In several countries, conflict, often in combination with adverse weather, has left millions of people in need of urgent assistance.

 

Youth employment is a fundamental challenge across the continent. Most youth work in the informal economy and 67 percent of young workers live in poverty. Agriculture and the rural economy will play a key role in creating jobs to absorb the millions of youth joining the labor market each year. Action to provide infrastructure, facilitating private enterprise development and youth specific skills training and access to land, financing, inputs, services and safety nets are essential.

 

Climate change is a present and growing threat to food security and nutrition in Africa and is a particularly severe threat to countries relying heavily on agriculture. In general, reduced precipitation and higher temperatures are already impacting negatively on the yields of staple food crops, although there is some spatial diversity. By 2050, climate change will cause another 71 million people to be food insecure in the world, over half of whom will be in sub-Saharan Africa. (7)  Climate variability and extremes are a key driver of the recent rise in food insecurity and one of the leading causes of the severe food crises that have affected the continent. They undermine, directly and indirectly, food availability, access, utilization and stability with grave consequences for immediate and long-term nutrition outcomes, especially for children.

 

Africa is dominated by family farming, which relies mainly on family labor. Africa has 33 million farms of less than 2 hectares, accounting for 80% of all farms. One in four undernourished people in the world live in Africa: “Africa is the only continent where the absolute number of undernourished people has increased over the last 30 years. Food insecurity remains an essentially rural phenomenon “(NEPAD Transforming Africa)

Methods

For this study, the author used a multitude of articles and publications as well as data sets provided by FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), UNCCD (The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification), IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute), and others. Also, the visual aides were created with ESRI ArcMap software.  The maps used merely illustrate the findings of numerous studies: poverty rates, malnutrition, severe famine, soil degradation and likelihood of conflicts to occur on the African continent in decades to come. 

The demographic index used in this study is TFR- total fertility rate, the total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her life time if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility in the population. A value of TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called Replacement-level fertility (UN, Population Division).

Developed countries usually have a significantly lower fertility rate, often correlated with greater wealth, education, urbanization, or other factors. Mortality rates are low, birth control is understood and easily accessible, and costs are often deemed very high because of education, clothing, feeding, and social amenities.

In undeveloped countries on the other hand, families desire children for their labor and as caregivers for their parents in old age. Fertility rates are also higher due to the lack of access to contraceptives, stricter adherence to traditional religious beliefs, generally lower levels of female education, and lower rates of female employment in industry.

 

Results

Africa is experiencing a demographic explosion right now, as many countries are in Stage III of the demographic transition. This is characterized by high birth rates, rapidly declining death rates and an increase in life expectancy, as a result of vaccines, overall improving health care, clean water, etc.  The Total Fertility Rates (TFR) in Africa are the highest in the world. Most Sub-Saharan countries will double their populations at intervals of 10-20 years in the next few decades. Niger, for example, with a fertility rate of around 7%, will double its population every 15 to 20 years or so.  Projections show that by 2070, Niger will have a population about six times larger than it is today. 

Niger has a TFR of 7.0%, the highest in the world right now.  The population pyramid in 2019 indicate a stage III of demographic transition, with a broad base and rapid decline in number of older populations. 

 

Based on current trends, projections show the same growth pattern for the next five decades and a population beginning the stabilize at the end of this century.

 

The average poverty rate for Sub-Saharan Africa stands at about 41%, and of the world’s 28 poorest countries, 27 are in Sub-Saharan Africa all with a poverty rate above 30%.  Projections by the World Bank also show that extreme poverty is showing few signs of improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa and may keep countries from ending extreme poverty by 2030.  

Poverty is also reflected in the levels of malnutrition and severe food insecurity.

Land degradation is happening worldwide. The most affected countries, however, are and will continue to be the countries which practice a subsistence agriculture, lack funding for research and education for a sustainable approach. Niger is among these countries. The southern half of Niger, which is affected by high rates of land degradation is where most of the population lives, as the rest of the territory is uninhabitable desert.

As a result, the agricultural output will continue to shrink as the population will grow exponentially for at least two to three decades moving forward. Although the GDPs of Sub-Saharan countries have been steadily increasing, the GDP per capita has been almost stagnant, as the population increases at a fast pace. For example, in Niger the GDP has increased at a steady annual rate of around 3.5 % since 1994, the GDP/Capita increased by a mere $60/year, from $334 in 1994 to $394 in 2017. In these circumstances, importing enough food to eradicate famine will be a challenge in the next two to three decades.  (5)

Hunger in Africa continues to rise after many years of decline, threatening the continent's hunger eradication efforts to meet the Malabo Goals 2025 and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, particularly the Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG2). New data presented in the joint UN report, the Africa Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition (3), indicates that 237 million people in sub-Saharan Africa are suffering from chronic undernutrition, derailing the gains made in the past years.  Food insufficiency has many causes: soil degradation, lack of infrastructure in agriculture, such as irrigation systems, climate change and prolonged droughts, especially in the Sahel region, lack of investments, social turmoil, etc.  It is unlikely that people of Africa will be lifted out of poverty any time soon.

                

 

Analysis

The study emphasizes two distinct trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, Niger included: as the population increases rapidly, the soil degradation diminishes the agricultural output and as a result, some countries will continue to experience hunger in the decades to come. In addition, slow economic growth will lead to high unemployment for the young.  Although many African countries have experienced a steady economic growth, in the tune of 3.5% to 4% per year, the GDP/capita has been almost stagnant, as the population has been increasing rapidly. The result is a perpetuation of the status quo: poverty, land degradation and famine.  Food prices volatility will amplify the problem for poor countries, as they will not be able to satisfy their growing needs. (7)

 

Conclusions

Africa’s population is projects to rise to 2.5 Billion by 2050.  By then, the continent will have the largest population growth of any global geographical region.  In 2050, 25% of the world’s working age population will live in Africa, compared to 8% in 1950. (4)  Niger will begin to stabilize its population around 2100 and by that time the country will have around 210 Million people (4).  The neighboring countries will have far larger populations; Nigeria, for example, will have almost 750 Million people. 

Conflict, mass migrations to more affluent regions, social unrest are to be expected in Sub-Saharan Africa in decades to come.   For the most part, Africans have migrated within the continent, to more affluent countries, such as South Africa (domestic service, mining, construction), Cote d’Ivoire (agriculture), Gabon (lumber and mining), etc.  Since 1990, however, the number of migrants seeking work outside of Africa has been steadily rising.   According to a PEW Research study, Sub-Saharan African nations “account for 8 of 10 fastest growing international migrant populations since 2010.” (9) . The number of emigrants from each of these sub-Saharan countries grew by 50% or more between 2010 and 2017. (9) 

Figure 11: Migration Patterns in Africa

 

Conflicts have been perpetuating throughout the African continent and they will exacerbate in the future, according to studies by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2)

According to the study, conflicts include “violence over access to livelihood resources, such as land and water are on the rise”.  Competition and violence between farmers and herders as well as competition over local water resources are common and very likely to increase in the future.

Large numbers of African countries are currently trapped in autocracies, which are neither democratic nor fully autocratic regimes. The transition to democracy tends to be more prone to conflict and instability.  Present governance often fails to provide domestic security, fails to effectively administer the territory and provide minimum services.  Violent armed conflict and resource insecurity will continue to occur in poor countries where the following variables are present: weak governance, widespread youth unemployment, scarcity of food and water resources.

Increasingly, political leaders recognize that demography holds the key to Africa’s development and prosperity. High rates of population growth, notably among sub-Saharan African countries, outpace efforts to educate, employ, house and achieve fundamental development goals. Those development setbacks in turn feed illegal migration, smuggling and human trafficking. Recent studies show that more than 70 percent of migrants traveling through North Africa to Europe are victims of human trafficking, organ trafficking and exploitation along the way. (1)

Without global population stabilization, governments will increasingly struggle to address critical issues facing humanity including global warming, biodiversity, environmental degradation, as well as shortages of energy, food and water supplies. High-growth countries, particularly those in Africa, must pass as quickly as possible through demographic transition to low death and birth rates as has already been realized throughout much of the world. (1)

 

References

1.     Chamie, Joseph; “Africa’s Population Growth Could Undermine Sustainability Goals”, YaleGlobal Online, 2016, https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/

2.     Cilliers, Jakkie and Schunnermann Julia;  “The Future of Intra-State Conflict in Africa- More Violence or Greater Peace?” Institute for Security Studies, www.issafrica.org

3.     “Economic Development in Africa”, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

         unctad.org/en/Pages/ALDC/Africa/EDAR2018-Key-Statistics.aspx

4.     FAO and ECA. 2018. Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition. Addressing the threat from climate variability and extremes for food security and nutrition. Accra. www.fao.org/3/CA2710EN/ca2710en.pdf

5.     “Hunger and Food Scarceness in Africa”, SOS Children’s Villages

          www.sos-usa.org/about-us/where-we-work/africa/hunger-in-africa

6.      “International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa has Grown Dramatically since 2010”, Pew Research Center,  www.pewresearch.org/

7.      Minot, Nicholas; Food Policy, “ Food Price Volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa: Has it Really Increased?” 2014, vol. 45, issue C, 45-56

8.     “New UN report reveals that hunger in Africa continues to rise”, FAO  www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1180443/icode/

9.     Pearson, Nakia and Niaufre, Camille; “Desertification and Drought Related Migrations in the Sahel”,    The State of Environmental Migration, Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) / International Organization for Migration (IOM) / Sciences Po Press, 2013, p 79-98

10.  Pennock, Dan; Soil Erosion: The Greatest Challenge for Sustainable Soil Management, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2019

11.  Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100 ,    www.populationpyramid.net 

Worldometers, www.worldometers.info/gdp/niger-gdp/